Top 3 upside risks in Q1 2026:
- Income tax reduction may boost the spending of households and even reduce the household savings rate.
- Lower security risk in the Eastern Europe (some kind of armistice) could reduce the relatively high domestic savings rate and improve access to reconstruction projects in Ukraine for the commercial (construction, engineering) sector. Situation in Iran leads to lower energy prices already in Q3 2026.
- Higher fiscal spending in Germany for infrastructure and defence broadens the commercial possibility of Slovenian providers of construction and auxiliary services, which implies higher potential of services exports.
Top 3 downisde risks in Q1 2026:
- Foreign demand in automotive, chemical industry and steel parts, that is facing pressure from cheap imports to EU-27 and growing labour costs in Slovenia. Rising commodity and energy prices which are tied to the conflict in the Middle East.
- Different policy priorities with regards to specific public infrastructure projects may reduce the public investment growth in 2026.
- Persistently high household’s savings rate that may prove to be structural due to aging and is not fuelling the GDP growth but wealth of households, especially the real estate.
We invite you to follow our analyses and insights into key economic trends, through which we aim to enhance transparency, support informed decision-making, and contribute to long-term growth in Slovenia.
