Key Highlights for Q3:
- GDP growth in Q3 2025 of 0.8% q-o-q, slightly better than expected, and strengthening to 1.7% y-o-y;
- Household consumption remains subdued despite rising real wages, indicating a structural increase in savings.
- Export performance is challenged by global competition, especially from China, and rising labor costs.
- Q4 2025E to be the strongest quarter of the year, resulting to a moderate GDP growth of 0.9% in 2025E.
- Looking ahead, we expect GDP growth to double to 2% in 2026P.
- Upcoming elections may boost government spending and infrastructure.
- Lower geopolitical risk could open new commercial avenues, including reconstruction projects in Ukraine.
- German infrastructure investments create new possibilities for Slovenian providers.
- Competitive pressure from China in key sectors.
- Policy shifts may reduce public investment
- Persistently high household savings could fuel real estate price growth.
